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            Abstract Seasonal phytoplankton blooms in Greenland’s coastal waters form the base of marine food webs and contribute to oceanic carbon uptake. In Qeqertarsuup Tunua, West Greenland, a secondary summertime bloom follows the Arctic spring bloom, enhancing annual primary productivity. Emerging evidence links this summer bloom to subglacial discharge from Sermeq Kujalleq, the most active glacier on the Greenland Ice Sheet. This discharge drives localized upwelling that may alleviate nutrient limitation in surface waters, yet this mechanism remains poorly quantified. Here, we employ a high-resolution biogeochemical model nested within a global state estimate to assess how discharge-driven upwelling influences primary productivity and carbon fluxes. We find that upwelling increases summer productivity by 15–40% in Qeqertarsuup Tunua, yet annual carbon dioxide uptake rises by only ~3% due to reduced solubility in plume-upwelled waters. These findings suggest that intensifying ice sheet melt may alter Greenland’s coastal productivity and carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2026
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            Abstract In climate studies, it is crucial to distinguish between changes caused by natural variability and those resulting from external forcing. Here we use a suite of numerical experiments based on the ECCO‐Darwin ocean biogeochemistry model to separate the impact of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate and climate on the ocean carbon sink — with a goal of disentangling the space‐time variability of the dominant drivers. When globally integrated, the variable atmospheric growth rate and climate exhibit similar magnitude impacts on ocean carbon uptake. At local scales, interannual variability in air‐sea CO2flux is dominated by climate. The implications of our study for real‐world ocean observing systems are clear: in order to detect future changes in the ocean sink due to slowing atmospheric CO2growth rates, better observing systems and constraints on climate‐driven ocean variability are required.more » « less
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            Abstract. Ice calved from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets or tidewater glaciers ultimately melts in the ocean, contributing to sea-level rise and potentially affecting marine biogeochemistry. Icebergs have been described as ocean micronutrient fertilizing agents and biological hotspots due to their potential roles as platforms for marine mammals and birds. Icebergs may be especially important fertilizing agents in the Southern Ocean, where low availability of the micronutrients iron and manganese extensively limits marine primary production. Whilst icebergs have long been described as a source of iron to the ocean, their nutrient load is poorly constrained and it is unclear if there are regional differences. Here we show that 589 ice fragments collected from calved ice in contrasting regions spanning the Antarctic Peninsula; Greenland; and smaller tidewater systems in Svalbard, Patagonia, and Iceland have similar (micro)nutrient concentrations with limited or no significant differences between regions. Icebergs are a minor or negligible source of macronutrients to the ocean with low concentrations of NOx- (NO3-+NO2-; median of 0.51 µM), PO43- (median of 0.04 µM), and dissolved Si (dSi; median of 0.02 µM). In contrast, icebergs deliver elevated concentrations of dissolved Fe (dFe; median of 12 nM) and Mn (dMn; median of 2.6 nM). The sediment load for Antarctic ice (median of 9 mg L−1, n=144) was low compared to prior reported values for the Arctic (up to 200 g L−1). Total dissolvable Fe and Mn retained a strong relationship with the sediment load (both R2=0.43, p<0.001), whereas weaker relationships were observed for dFe (R2=0.30, p<0.001), dMn (R2=0.20, p<0.001), and dSi (R2=0.29, p<0.001). A strong correlation between total dissolvable Fe and Mn (R2=0.95, p<0.001) and a total dissolvable Mn:Fe ratio of 0.024 suggested a lithogenic origin for the majority of sediment present in ice. Dissolved Mn was present at higher dMn:dFe ratios, with fluxes from melting ice roughly equivalent to 30 % of the corresponding dFe flux. Our results suggest that NOx- and PO43- concentrations measured in calved icebergs originate from the ice matrix. Conversely, high Fe and Mn, as well as occasionally high dSi concentrations, are associated with englacial sediment, which experiences limited biogeochemical processing prior to release into the ocean.more » « less
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            Abstract Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone‐depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N2O‐depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N2O (aN2O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N2O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN2O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre‐industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal‐average N2O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak‐to‐peak amplitudes differ several‐fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN2O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN2O, inferred by the difference between the surface‐troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ∼1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre‐industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN2O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN2O observations and atmospheric transport‐chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon‐nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.more » « less
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            Abstract Subglacial discharge emerging from the base of Greenland's marine‐terminating glaciers drives upwelling of nutrient‐rich bottom waters to the euphotic zone, which can fuel nitrate‐limited phytoplankton growth. Here, we use buoyant plume theory to quantify this subglacial discharge‐driven nutrient supply on a pan‐Greenland scale. The modeled nitrate fluxes were concentrated in a few critical systems, with half of the total modeled nitrate flux anomaly occurring at just 14% of marine‐terminating glaciers. Increasing subglacial discharge fluxes results in elevated nitrate fluxes, with the largest flux occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ in Disko Bay, where subglacial discharge is largest. Subglacial discharge and nitrate flux anomaly also account for significant temporal variability in summer satellite chlorophyll a (Chl) within 50 km of Greenland's coast, particularly in some regions in central west and northwest Greenland.more » « less
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            RADIv1: a non-steady-state early diagenetic model for ocean sediments in Julia and MATLAB/GNU OctaveAbstract. We introduce a time-dependent, one-dimensional model ofearly diagenesis that we term RADI, an acronym accounting for the mainprocesses included in the model: chemical reactions, advection, molecularand bio-diffusion, and bio-irrigation. RADI is targeted for study ofdeep-sea sediments, in particular those containing calcium carbonates(CaCO3). RADI combines CaCO3 dissolution driven by organic matterdegradation with a diffusive boundary layer and integrates state-of-the-artparameterizations of CaCO3 dissolution kinetics in seawater, thusserving as a link between mechanistic surface reaction modeling andglobal-scale biogeochemical models. RADI also includes CaCO3precipitation, providing a continuum between CaCO3 dissolution andprecipitation. RADI integrates components rather than individual chemicalspecies for accessibility and is straightforward to compare againstmeasurements. RADI is the first diagenetic model implemented in Julia, ahigh-performance programming language that is free and open source, and itis also available in MATLAB/GNU Octave. Here, we first describe thescientific background behind RADI and its implementations. Following this, we evaluateits performance in three selected locations and explore other potentialapplications, such as the influence of tides and seasonality on earlydiagenesis in the deep ocean. RADI is a powerful tool to study thetime-transient and steady-state response of the sedimentary system toenvironmental perturbation, such as deep-sea mining, deoxygenation, oracidification events.more » « less
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            Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO2flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2(pCO2products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2‐driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate‐forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate‐driven variability exceeding the CO2‐forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2dominates the ocean CO2sink, while climate‐driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.more » « less
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